Your company has 3 shops of the same size with the same products. The predictions are that the total sales of your company will increase by 10% in 2013. Complete the following tab:
| 2012 | 2013 | |
| Shop 1 | 10 000 | ? |
| Shop 2 | 20 000 | ? |
| Shop 3 | 100 000 | ? |
| TOTAL | 130 000 | 143 000 |
Most people tend to increase the sales of each shop by 10% while it is more plausible that extreme values (Shop 3 and 1) will regress to the average. This bias is called the regression to the average effect.
Reference:
Thinkig fast and slow, D.Kahneman