Cognitive Bias: Regression to the average

Your company has 3 shops of the same size with the same products. The predictions are that the total sales of your company will increase by 10% in 2013. Complete the following tab:

Shop 110 000?
Shop 220 000?
Shop 3100 000?
TOTAL130 000143 000

Most people tend to increase the sales of each shop by 10% while it is more plausible that extreme values (Shop 3 and 1) will regress to the average. This bias is called the regression to the average effect.


Thinkig fast and slow, D.Kahneman